Short Term Cloud Nowcasting for a Solar Power Plant based on Irradiance Historical Data

This work considers the problem of forecasting the normal solar irradiance with high spatial and temporal resolution (5 minutes). The forecasting is based on a dataset registered during one year from the high resolution radiometric network at a operational solar power plan at Almeria, Spain. In part...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Caballero, Rafael, Zarzalejo, Luis F., Otero, Álvaro, Piñuel, Luis, Wilbert, Stefan
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:Argentina
Institución:Universidad Nacional de La Plata
Repositorio:SEDICI (UNLP)
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/71620
Acceso en línea:http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/71620
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Ciencias Informáticas
cloud nowcasting
GHI
LSTM,
supervised machine learning
prendizaje automático supervisado
previsión de nubes
Descripción
Sumario:This work considers the problem of forecasting the normal solar irradiance with high spatial and temporal resolution (5 minutes). The forecasting is based on a dataset registered during one year from the high resolution radiometric network at a operational solar power plan at Almeria, Spain. In particular, we show a technique for forecasting the irradiance in the next few minutes from the irradiance values obtained on the previous hour. Our proposal employs a type of recurrent neural network known as LSTM, which can learn complex patterns and that has proven its usability for forecasting temporal series. The results show a reasonable improvement with respect to other prediction methods typically employed in the studies of temporal series.