Voting behaviour under doubts of ballot secrecy: reinforcing dominant party rule
Ballot secrecy is a cornerstone of electoral democracy, since its real or perceived absence can make voters reluctant to express their true preferences. Through survey data from Singapore, we show that doubts over ballot secrecy can alter voting behavior even when the vote is secret and there are no...
| Authors: | , |
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| Format: | article |
| Status: | Versión aceptada para publicación |
| Publication Date: | 2023 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
| Repository: | Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:recercat.cat:2445/212919 |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/212919 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Eleccions Partits polítics Autoritarisme Elections Political parties Authoritarianism |
| Summary: | Ballot secrecy is a cornerstone of electoral democracy, since its real or perceived absence can make voters reluctant to express their true preferences. Through survey data from Singapore, we show that doubts over ballot secrecy can alter voting behavior even when the vote is secret and there are no individually-targeted punishments or incentives. We estimate such doubts cause 3-5% of Singaporean voters to support the dominant party despite a preference for the opposition. We also examine individual-level correlates of doubting ballot secrecy: a tendency towards belief in conspiracies and distrust of the mass media are the strongest predictors. Finally, we use counterfactual election results to show the consequences of these doubts: they consistently secure the dominant party additional parliamentary seats, thereby buttressing dominant party rule over the long term without resorting to overtly repressive measures that can attract domestic and international condemnation. |
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