La regla fiscal y su papel estabilizador en Colombia: ¿qué se vislumbra en los próximos años?

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic stabilization role of the quantitative fiscal rule submitted by the national government in July 2010, if it is adopted. This role is crucial to the case of countries with rich natural resources. The forecasting exercises that are developed in this paper show how...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Lozano, Luis Ignacio
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2010
País:Colombia
Institución:Universidad Católica de Colombia
Repositorio:RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/622
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10983/622
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:REGLAS FISCALES
CONTRA-CICLICIDAD
SOSTENIBILIDAD DE LA DEUDA
FISCAL RULES
COUNTERCYCLICALITY
DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
POLITICA FISCAL-COLOMBIA
POLITICA ECONOMICA
ECONOMIA POLITICA
POLITICA MONETARIA-COLOMBIA
Descripción
Sumario:This paper analyzes the macroeconomic stabilization role of the quantitative fiscal rule submitted by the national government in July 2010, if it is adopted. This role is crucial to the case of countries with rich natural resources. The forecasting exercises that are developed in this paper show how the fiscal rule reacts to three alternative scenarios of economic growth: First, when it grows to its potential level; second, when there is a deep recession like happened at the end of the nineties; and third, when there is an expansion phase as it did between 1993 and 1997. The rule will modify the pro-cyclicality management that historically the government has given the country’s public finances